Covid-19: Why the Spike?

The increase, or strong spike in Covid-19 confirmed hospitalizations looks a lot like the increase in the financial markets. However, for Covid-19, the numbers have an unprecedented range between 50% — 150% — in increases. Yes, you read that correctly.

 

Coincidence? Let’s dive in.

Since the March low, the financial markets have roared — outside of any measurable, realistic data — a staggering 29.2% (using an approximate 3-month number of DOW 20,500–26,500.)

A few of the hardest hit states for increases in new, Covid-19 confirmed cases includes Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.

Arizona: Now one of the “Big-4” hot-beds; especially Phoenix.

California saw its highest, single day increase on Monday. More than half of the total cases are in Los Angeles county alone.

Florida reported 2,800 hospitalizations.

Texas reported 2,326 hospitalization on Monday, June 16.

On a positive note, the state of Vermont has seen a 50% decrease.

Shift, or Drift?

We were hoping for stabilization, or what the political community has termed, “flattening the curve.” We then hoped for a large decline, or steady decline at least, much like a bell curve. As mentioned in a previous article, we should have followed the model of New Zealand and Australia (i.e. “Let the scientists lead.”) What a novel idea! These two countries didn’t even have to worry about flattening the curve, much less combat a steep decline. It just didn’t happen. So now what?

It was once hypothesized that a warmer climate may be helpful in reducing the spread, despite the contraction of the virus being respiratory. Heat will make water dissipate and disappear; I get it. But where are the so called “hot-beds?” How about Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. Do you see a pattern between these four? Hot, Hot, More Hot Still, and Flaming Hot. Have you been to Houston in the summer months? Or even between the months of March to October, for “crying” out loud?

Vermont on the other hand, has recorded a 50% decline. Go figure. Heat is clearly not a variable worth consideration.

The single, most definitive factor in our intentional attack against COVID-19, is the harsh reality that testing is a lagging indicator. How to calculate this particular variable — the nasty, little lagging statistic — is pretty gray on the black-and-white scale. It would be hard to determine a formula unless we could extract some reliable data: 1) Current cases 2) Daily number of new cases 3) Tests conducted 4) Positive results with and without symptoms 5) Hospitalizations (against those tested/not tested) 6) Negative test results 7) Admissions vs. Releases at Hospitals/Medical facilities. 8) Those who are now healthy

These are not easy metrics to calculate and record, or a perfect model as a foundation to begin to solve for optimal results. Does anyone know the best bio-statistician or actuary in the U.S., or the world — or both?

And Therein, Lies the Rub

And we have a new variable waiting in the wings: Flu season. Oh, joy. Not I or anyone else on the planet, has the foresight to know how this will affect the overall health outlook as we head into fall. What I will say is this: all signs point to, Not Good!

The corona virus has an almost identical pathology in common with the flu, and that in and of itself, creates the most significant challenge. Only time will tell what it to come, and we won’t know it, until it is here, and then 3–7 days later. All we can continue to do, is make decisions with the best possible information we have at the time. I also [strongly!] recommend, feeling content with the blessings you have, that you may have missed, only three months ago.